water scarcity and cotton
This month the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) published a report which clearly shows extreme water shortages are likely to occur by mid-century in the United States. The report finds that every state in the lower 48 is at risk for water scarcity and the Great Plains and Southwest are likely to face extremely high water shortages.
Researchers at Tetra Tech, a consulting firm used by the federal government and many major corporations, took a look at projected water demands along with renewable water supplies. They calculated what would happen to water supplies under 16 different leading climate models. What they found is that water supplies will dwindle and demand for fresh water will increase.
On the supply side, climate models forecast that many parts of the country will not only have less rainfall, but more of what does make it to the ground from snow or rain will be lost to evapotranspiration (water lost to evaporation and vegetation transpiration). As temperatures rise due to climate change, east Texas, the California Central Valley and the Southeastern states could see five fewer inches of available precipitation each year–what’s left after evapotranspiration. Leaving them even drier than they have been in recent years.
While we’re seeing less water enter the system, we’ll be taking more water withdrawals from aquifers, dams, rivers, and lakes. According to the study, water use in the U.S. is expected to increase by 12.3 percent between 2000 and 2050. The primary uses of fresh water are for agriculture, power plant cooling, and domestic use.
The regions expecting the worst water shortages are already using more water than they receive in rainfall each year. For example, California, the Southwest, and Texas already have water withdrawals over 100 percent of annual rainfall. This means those states use more water than they have.
Another point that needs to be made is that the hardest hit states are also where we grow much of the nation’s fruit, vegetables, and cotton. On the map below, you can see by the dark red colors the counties most at risk for extreme water shortages. The white dots show where the majority of the cotton is grown in the U.S.

While American cotton farmers are methods that put cotton’s water consumption in line with other crops, we may have to choose one day that it’s more important to have food than cotton (as there are other choices for textile fibers). But we won’t be able to rely on other countries to take up the slack and grow our cotton for us.
The top five cotton-producing nations are: China, U.S., India, Pakistan, and Brazil. Together these countries produce almost 84 percent of the global cotton crops. And, with the exception of Brazil, these same nations are also looking at severe water shortages in the short and long term.
Clearly much needs to be done to ensure we’re using water wisely. Conservation methods need to improve, legislation to slow down and reverse climate change is required, and we may have to decide if we want to grow cotton for t-shirts, or food for our tables.
What do you make of the new study and do you think we’ll have to face the day when cotton jeans, linens, and t-shirts are only for the wealthy? Post your thoughts below; we’re interested in what you have to say on this subject.
Just over 1,500 people were asked what the
Here at home, California, southern Texas, and the Southwest continue to suffer from severe to extreme drought. Fortunately, we haven’t had to endure the hardships imposed on the citizens of other countries. Just this week residents of Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, are having to do without water service for 



